An Irresponsible Federal Budget
To sum up the 2009 federal budget in one word, irresponsible is our choice. Perhaps one of the most important budgets in Canadian history, it turns back the clock on past sound fiscal management and sets the nation back down the path of massive deficits and increased debt. Worse still, Canadians should expect little economic stimulus from this budget.
Consider that from 1997-98, the year the Chretien government balanced the budget, to 2007-08, the federal government ran budget surpluses each year and reduced the debt by $105 billion. Even with this decrease, 13 cents of every tax dollar in 2009-10 will go towards paying interest on the remaining debt.
The 2009 budget will undo nearly all of the hard work that has been done over the past 11 years in terms of paying down debt. With $85 billion in deficits proposed over the next five years, the debt burden and accompanying interest payments will increase significantly for the next generation.
For what, you ask? A massive, $28-billion, two-year spending spree that attempts to appease nearly every special interest group from seniors to aboriginals, farmers to the auto industry, and forestry, tourism, environmentalists and arts and culture.
And despite the stimulus rhetoric, the increased spending will do little, if anything, to increase economic growth. The reason for this is the government must borrow to finance this spending -- it will take money from some Canadians (those buying government bonds) who will have less to spend and/or invest in the private market, and spend it on others.
The government is merely shuffling $28 billion around from one group of Canadians to another, rather than increasing overall economic activity.
The centre piece of the government's stimulus package is the $11.8 billion in new infrastructure spending over the next two years. While Canada's infrastructure certainly needs improvement, increased capital spending will do little to stimulate the economy. Infrastructure initiatives are rarely shovel ready and those that are are not necessarily the ones that provide the greatest economic return.
The budget also included billions for specific regions and industries, including $4 billion for the auto industry, a $1-billion community adjustment fund for rural towns, $335 million for culture and arts, $140 million for tourism, $500 million for agriculture, $170 million for the forestry sector, $1 billion for a new southern Ontario development agency and $1 billion to support clean energy technology.
Like previous federal governments, the Conservatives are relying on failed activist economic policies that will only delay the day of reckoning for these troubled industries. The government should have used these resources to create the right investment climate and environment for all businesses to succeed.
Worse still, the budget contains little permanent broad-based tax relief. While $11.9 billion in tax relief was provided over the next two years, only $3.8 billion is permanent and broad-based. These include a small increase in the basic personal exemption (the amount of money Canadians can earn tax-free) and increases in the thresholds at which the bottom two personal income tax rates apply.
The majority of the tax relief offered in the budget mirrors the spending increases by targeting select groups and preferred industries. It includes a host of new or expanded tax credits such as the new home renovation tax credit, a first-time home buyers' tax credit, an extended mineral exploration tax credit, and an increased age credit.
All told, the permanent broad-based tax relief ($3.8 billion) offered in the budget pales in comparison to the total stimulus package of $39.9 billion (spending and tax relief), a meagre 10-to-one ratio.
If the federal government had followed the lead of Canadian households and trimmed spending, significant tax relief (including the elimination of the capital gains tax and more aggressive personal and corporate income tax reductions) would have been possible.
This type of tax relief would have improved the incentives for increased work effort, investment and entrepreneurial risk taking. That would be a true stimulus to wealth creation now and in the future.
Unfortunately, the government failed to make the difficult choices required and was instead swayed by group think regarding stimulus spending and budget deficits. While the budget will likely get this government through a confidence vote, it will not have any meaningful positive impact on the well being of Canadians.
In fact, given the rise in indebtedness, the inefficient spending, a preference for consumption today over investment tomorrow, and the politicizing of economic decisions, this budget can only be seen as a step back from Canada's recent progress.
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